By Isiaka Mustapha, Editor-In-Chief, People’s Security Monitor

The face-off between NUPENG and the Dangote Refinery has turned into more than an ordinary labour quarrel; it now poses a clear national security risk. At a time Nigeria is battling economic recovery, galloping inflation and global uncertainty, the union’s hardline posture threatens to further destabilise the system. What is even more worrisome is the suspicion that some forces within NUPENG may not be acting alone, but serving as proxies for anti-government interests bent on sabotaging the country’s progress..

Let’s be clear: union membership in Nigeria is a constitutional right, but it remains voluntary. No employer is legally bound to compel workers into joining any union. This principle is firmly recognised under Nigerian law as well as international labour conventions. What NUPENG is attempting, pressuring management to enforce union affiliation is in itself an unlawful demand, cleverly dressed up as a labour rights issue. But beneath this legal distortion lies a deeper and more troubling agenda.

NUPENG’s unsubstantiated accusations against the Dangote Refinery were not only hasty but also potentially strategic. Within 48 hours of signing a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) witnessed by state institutions and brokered by the Department of State Services (DSS), NUPENG cried foul. It accused the refinery of violating the pact without presenting a single shred of verifiable evidence to the public. This suggests not a misunderstanding, but a calculated attempt to ignite industrial unrest.

And they almost succeeded. Within hours, panic began spreading across major cities. Fuel queues formed, prices rose, and speculation took hold. This is not an innocent outcome; this is precisely the kind of manufactured crisis that weakens a state from within. NUPENG threatened to shut down fuel distribution across Nigeria, knowing full well that the country consumes over 72 million litres of petrol daily and that any disruption would have catastrophic consequences—transportation paralysis, power outages, inflation spikes, and potential mass protests.

This is where the issue transcends labour politics. It becomes a question of national stability. And this is why the DSS had to step in. The agency’s intervention was not just administrative; it was a response to a looming threat to Nigeria’s internal security. Fuel is the lifeblood of the Nigerian economy. To threaten its supply, especially on the basis of questionable claims, is nothing short of economic sabotage.

But there is a bigger concern now emerging in security circles: who is behind this escalation?

There is growing suspicion, both in government and among civil society organizations, that NUPENG’s hardline position is not merely ideological. Some observers believe that elements within the union are being backed or at the very least influenced by anti-government forces, possibly even international fuel importation cartels, who view the success of the Dangote Refinery as a direct threat to their billion-dollar profits. If Dangote succeeds, the need for imported refined petroleum will drastically shrink, breaking the stranglehold these vested interests have enjoyed for decades.

In this light, NUPENG’s actions begin to look disturbingly coordinated. They undermine a major national asset. They dismiss agreements brokered by the state. They stoke public anxiety with unverified claims. And most importantly, they exploit the hardship of ordinary Nigerians as leverage in a high-stakes economic war.

This is no longer just a labour union behaving badly. This is a national security risk, possibly driven by infiltration from actors whose ultimate goal is to destabilize the government of the day. The consequences are too severe to ignore.

The DSS and other national security agencies must now look beyond conflict resolution. They must investigate whether the agitation by NUPENG is part of a broader campaign of economic sabotage. If it is found that external or internal enemies of the state are using the union as a tool to provoke unrest and cripple national infrastructure, the full weight of the law must be brought down.

For far too long, labour unions have operated with impunity in Nigeria, cloaking self-interest under the noble guise of protecting workers. But in a democratic society underpinned by rule of law, no union, no matter how historic or powerful can hold the nation to ransom. Especially not when their actions align so suspiciously with the interests of those who want Nigeria to fail.

This government has a duty to protect not just national assets, but the psychological stability of its people. It cannot afford to allow disinformation, fear-mongering, and manufactured strikes to destabilize an already fragile economy. Industrial rights must be respected; but so must national sovereignty.

NUPENG must be held accountable. If elements within the union are indeed serving as foot soldiers in a larger plot to undermine national development, then Nigerians deserve to know. And justice must follow. Because when the line between labour activism and national betrayal is crossed, the response cannot be negotiation; it must be decisive action.